Automated Trading Profit > Building Your Own Trading System - Part 3

My Trading Help[My Trading Help] The problem with this is that your trading model will be “curve fitted”.  This means that the performance against data used for backtesting will not align with real world performance.  The reason for this is mathematical.  There is a mathematical approach called a linear regression.  This involves fitting an equation to a series of observations.  If you add extra variables, you can get the equation to fit very well, but it loses its predictive ability.  So a better model with less variables, or in our case, trading rules, is always more robust than a model with lots of variables.  Our goal is to build a system with very simple rules.

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